Key Highlights
- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “de facto deal” with Moscow’s business elite to support his war in Ukraine is breaking down.
- The first Ukrainian drone attack on the Kremlin occurred on May 3, 2023, revealing weaknesses in Russia’s air defenses.
- Recent events have exposed Russian fears of a disrupted military parade celebrating Stalin’s victory over Nazi Germany.
- The war has caused economic and social disruptions, including reduced internet access and high inflation rates.
Vladimir Putin’s War: The Hidden Costs Come Home to Moscow
Four years ago, President Vladimir Putin offered a tantalizing deal to the business elite of Moscow: Support my war in Ukraine, and you won’t have to think about it. That was then; this is now.
The Drone Threat
On May 3, 2023, two Ukrainian drones exploded over the Kremlin, a stark reminder that the conflict wasn’t as distant or inconsequential as Muscovites had been led to believe. Four years later, Russian officials are visibly nervous about potential drone attacks.
The Annual Parade Anxiety
Just days before Russia’s annual May 9 military parade, Russian foreign minister issued a threat, promising “no mercy” if Ukrainians disrupted the event. This is significant because the parade is intimately linked to Putin’s reign and his revived Soviet-era celebration of Stalin’s victory over Nazi Germany.
Economic Disruptions
The war has caused widespread economic disruption in Russia. In April, Telegram, a Russian-built app, was cut off, along with many virtual private networks (VPNs). This move effectively blocked much of the public internet and led to ATMs and ride apps malfunctioning.
Public Perception
Muscovites are finally forced to confront the reality of Putin’s war. The loss of Western social media, high inflation, and high interest rates have created a sense of unease among Russia’s wealthiest citizens. The parade on May 9 was short and subdued, with fewer foreign leaders attending.
So, while Putin can’t change his narrative or the reality on the ground, he has to face the consequences.
The war is no longer just an abstract concept but a daily presence in Moscow. The writing may be on the wall for his reign as well.