Key Highlights
- Chinese military activity around Taiwan is becoming more systematic and less responsive to external triggers.
- Domestic factors such as holidays and command availability shape operational tempo more than international events.
- The absence of clear causal links between Chinese military activity and specific world events challenges common assumptions about signaling.
The Nature of Chinese Military Exercises Around Taiwan
In the ongoing analysis of China’s military activities around Taiwan, a key question often arises: what triggers these movements? Traditionally, analysts have assumed that spikes in air and naval operations are reactions to political events or actions by other parties. However, a detailed examination of data from 2025 reveals a different picture.
Frequency and Normalization
The scale and persistence of Chinese military activity around Taiwan suggest less signaling and more systematic preparation for the use of force. This is evident in the frequency: true absences of Chinese military presence are rare, with only two days—12 and 13 November—when no air or maritime assets were detected around Taiwan.
Environmental Factors
Even as China’s military has become more comfortable operating in poor weather conditions, environmental constraints still play a role. Air and maritime activity significantly dropped during typhoons affecting the Taiwan Strait, such as Danas, Podul, and Ragasa. This underscores that even highly normalized pressure campaigns remain subject to safety considerations.
Domestic Factors Influencing Activity
The impact of domestic factors on military operations is significant. Chinese holidays and political security priorities influence operational tempo more than external events. For instance, Chinese holidays lasting several days and the fourth plenum of the Chinese Communist Party were associated with lower observable activity.
Analysis: The Absence of Clear Causal Links
The data from 2025 reveals that there is often no clear connection between Taiwan-related events or US actions and subsequent increases in Chinese military activity. Elevated activity frequently occurs without any apparent external triggers, challenging the common analytical reflex to find one-to-one causal explanations.
Internal Readiness Over External Provocation
The most intense periods of Chinese military activity often followed noticeable lulls. Operations like “Strait Thunder” and “Justice Mission” were executed according to internal readiness cycles and training schedules, rather than in response to discrete provocations from Taiwan or foreign actors.
Implications for Analysis
The data suggests that attempts to attribute daily Chinese military activity to specific world events risk over-interpretation and confirmation bias. The primary drivers of Chinese military activity are internal: force readiness, training cycles, environmental conditions, and institutional schedules.
This shift in the nature of Chinese military operations indicates a move away from episodic, event-driven responses to more systematic preparations. As Chinese military activities around Taiwan have become more routine, their primary purpose seems less about signaling and more about training, testing, and familiarization.
Conclusion
Preparing for Contingencies
The analysis of 2025 data reveals that the absence of clear causal links is not a failure of interpretation but rather highlights the internal nature of Chinese military activities. This understanding has significant implications for how governments and organizations should approach the challenge posed by China’s military around Taiwan.
While political context still matters at the margins, the dominant drivers are internal: force readiness, training cycles, environmental conditions, and institutional schedules. Beijing does not need an excuse to operate around Taiwan; increasingly, it does not bother to provide a convincing one.
The conclusion is clear: military coercion around Taiwan in 2025 reflected preparation, not provocation.