Key Highlights
- Nicolas Pepe’s odds to score a goal vs. Espanyol are +340.
- Villarreal has scored 39 goals in 21 games this season (third in LaLiga).
- Espanyol has conceded 27 goals in 22 matches (sixth in league).
- Pepe’s expected goals total is 0.6, with two actual goals so far.
The Villarreal Espanyol Matchup: A Prop Bet Analysis
So you’re thinking about betting on Nicolas Pepe to score a goal against Espanyol? Let’s break down the stats and see if it’s worth your time.
Villarreal’s Offense
LaLiga’s third-top scorers, Villarreal have been lighting up the scoreboard. In 21 games, they’ve netted an impressive 39 goals. That averages out to nearly two per match—quite a feat for any team in the league.
Espanyol’s Defense
Meanwhile, Espanyol has been struggling defensively. With 27 goals conceded in 22 matches, they’re sitting at sixth worst in LaLiga. This means that Villarreal will likely get plenty of chances to test the Espanyol defense.
Nicolas Pepe’s Performance
Pepe himself has had a decent season so far. In 21 matches, he’s managed two goals and three assists. However, his expected goals (xG) total is only 0.6, suggesting that his actual goal-scoring rate is slightly overperforming expectations by about 1.4.
His average of one shot per match with a total of 22 shots taken so far might not seem like much, but given the context, it’s clear he’s getting more opportunities than his xG suggests.
The Bet
Given these stats, betting on Pepe to score seems like a reasonable proposition. With odds at +340, you’re looking at decent value if you believe Villarreal will dominate the match and provide plenty of scoring chances for their star forward.
You might think this is new, but… it’s not uncommon in LaLiga for teams to score heavily against struggling defenses like Espanyol’s. So while Pepe’s recent form isn’t stellar, his expected goals suggest he still has a chance.
Conclusion
Will Villarreal vs. Espanyol live up to expectations? Time will tell. But with the stats in your favor and odds that seem fair, it could be worth considering Pepe as a prop bet winner for this match on February 9, 2026.