Key Highlights
- The 2025-26 NHL season’s playoff chances and projected standings have been updated based on 50,000 simulations.
- Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche are the top two teams with high probabilities of making the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup.
- Team-specific projections include detailed stats like offensive and defensive ratings, goal differences, and playoff odds.
- The methodology involves creating player-level Offensive and Defensive Ratings using various metrics over the past three seasons.
NHL Season Projections for 2025-26: A Detailed Look at Playoff Chances
As we approach the halfway point of the 2025-26 National Hockey League (NHL) season, the playoff landscape is becoming clearer. Based on extensive simulations and advanced analytics, teams like the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche are leading the pack in terms of making the playoffs and potentially winning the Stanley Cup.
Methodology Behind the Projections
The methodology for these projections involves a meticulous breakdown at the player level. Each player’s Offensive and Defensive Ratings are calculated using linear weight models that combine production and play-driving ability based on various box score and on-ice metrics over the last three seasons (five for goalies). These ratings are then adjusted for contextual usage, leading to an overall team rating that estimates their performance in a game against an average opponent at a neutral site.
Top Teams Projected for Playoff Success
The top teams projected to make significant strides in the playoffs include:
- Vegas Golden Knights: With a 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 19% probability of reaching the Stanley Cup Final, the Golden Knights are leading the pack.
- Colorado Avalanche: The Avalanche have an overwhelming 99.7% chance of making the playoffs and a strong 26% chance of winning it all.
- Tampa Bay Lightning: Despite facing tough competition, the Lightning still have a 98% chance of advancing to the playoffs with a promising 42% probability of making the Cup Final.
Detailed Team Projections
The projections are broken down into several key metrics:
- Points Projected for Season: Each team’s projected point total is calculated based on their current form and expected performance in remaining games.
- Potential Playoff Qualification: The probability of each team advancing to the playoffs is determined through extensive simulations.
- Cup Final Probability: Beyond just making it past the first round, these projections also assess how likely a team is to reach the Stanley Cup Finals and ultimately win the championship.
These detailed analyses provide valuable insights for fans and analysts alike, offering a forward-looking perspective on how each team stands in their respective divisions. As the season progresses, these projections will be updated daily, keeping stakeholders informed of any changes in the competitive landscape.
Conclusion
The Road Ahead
The road to the Stanley Cup is still long and uncertain, but with advanced analytics providing clear direction, teams like Vegas and Colorado are setting themselves up for success. Fans can stay tuned as these projections evolve, offering a unique glimpse into the future of NHL playoffs.
For more detailed analysis and updates on team standings and playoff probabilities, check our ongoing coverage at The Athletic. Stay informed and engaged with your favorite teams as they navigate through the remainder of the 2025-26 season.