Key Highlights
- Bitcoin is set for its worst five-month losing streak since 2018.
- Analysts debate whether the slump reflects a structural shift or signals further decline.
- The current drawdown stands at 52%, down from its October highs.
- Gold has outperformed Bitcoin significantly over the past year, reflecting changing investor sentiment.
Bitcoin is on track for its worst five-month losing streak since 2018. The digital currency is set to post a fifth consecutive monthly loss, marking one of its most challenging periods in recent memory. Analysts are divided, with some arguing that this represents early repricing within a broader structural shift, while others warn of deeper bear-market declines ahead.
Structural Shift vs. Bear Market
Market analysts like Mati Greenspan from eToro argue that the current selloff is part of a more profound shift in how markets price risk. “What we’re seeing isn’t just weakness; it’s repricing inside a structural regime shift,” Greenspan told CoinDesk.
Others, such as Jonatan Randin from PrimeXBT, are less optimistic. He points to mounting macroeconomic pressures, including $3.8 billion in ETF outflows over the past five weeks and escalating tariff tensions. “Gold is up roughly 48% since September while Bitcoin has fallen about 41% over the same period,” Randin noted, highlighting the divergence between safe-haven assets and digital currencies.
Uneven Relationship with Equities
The volatility in Bitcoin’s relationship with equities also underscores its unique position. While U.S. stocks have remained resilient, BTC has sharply underperformed, marking an unusual period of instability. Randin explained that the correlation between these assets is volatile: “The 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation swung from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February.” This instability suggests that Bitcoin may be trading more like a sovereign hedge rather than a traditional risk asset.
Reversal Potential
The current drawdown is significant, with Bitcoin down nearly 50% from its peak in October. However, Greenspan believes that sentiment may already reflect much of the pessimism. “When sentiment gets this uniformly negative while long-term fundamentals remain intact, reversals tend to be sharp,” he said.
Despite the bearish outlook, the market is not without support. Strategy raised the dividend on its perpetual preferred stock, STRC, by 25 basis points, signaling ongoing interest from traditional financial giants in digital assets.
However, for Bitcoin to break out of its current losing streak, it must reclaim key resistance levels such as $68,000–$72,000.
The losing streak narrative focuses on five months, but Greenspan argues that the structural story spans decades. “The structural shift in how markets value risk assets is a long-term trend,” he said. For now, Bitcoin’s fate remains uncertain, with analysts watching key support levels and correlations closely to determine if this bear market is just beginning or if a reversal is on the horizon.