Key Highlights
- Severe weather threat targets millions across Texas, Plains, and Midwest from Wednesday to Friday.
- Noaa’s Storm Prediction Center highlights Friday as the riskiest day for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
- Dallas and Fort Smith, Arkansas face a Level 2 out of 5 severe thunderstorm risk by Thursday.
- By Friday, the dryline is expected to swing further east, increasing the potential for disruptive storms in central Kansas and Oklahoma.
Four days of severe weather are targeting millions across Texas, the Plains, and Midwest. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center has already flagged Friday as the day with the highest risk, predicting large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes in parts of the Plains, Ozarks, and mid-Mississippi Valley.
Wednesday’s Threat
Starting Wednesday afternoon, severe thunderstorms are expected across a corridor from North Texas to southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Dallas and Fort Smith, Arkansas are under a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms, indicating significant potential for dangerous conditions.
Thursday’s Setup
A dryline is anticipated to set up Thursday over West Texas and Oklahoma, marking the boundary between dry air moving out of the Rockies and extremely humid air pouring north from the Gulf. Severe storms are expected to fire along this line in West Texas by Thursday afternoon, eventually moving into parts of central Kansas and Oklahoma through evening and overnight.
Friday’s Increased Threat
By Friday, the dryline is forecast to swing further east, but the severe weather threat will increase due to lower-level winds intensifying at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface. These winds are expected to significantly enhance the potential for disruptive storms, particularly supercell thunderstorms, which bring an increased tornado threat.
The SPC has issued a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms from Kansas City south through Oklahoma City and Dallas, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes expected to emerge by Friday afternoon and continue into early Saturday morning.
Stay Prepared
Check back regularly for updates on this developing story. Be prepared for soaking rains and flash flooding potential in the I-95 corridor through the end of the week as temperatures warm up in the Northeast. The weather pattern is a perfect example of why March marks the beginning of spring severe weather season, coming right on cue.
Stay safe out there, you might think this is new, but these patterns have been happening for decades and they’re not going away any time soon.