Key Highlights
- Harry Wilson is a reliable attacker with attractive fixtures and low ownership.
- Raul Jimenez offers consistency and security in his upcoming matches despite being under-owned.
- Kevin Schade has potential for explosive returns as a differential player.
- Piero Hincapie presents a defensive edge, especially due to injuries at Arsenal.
- Harry Wilson’s recent form and upcoming fixtures make him a strong differential pick.
Fantasy Premier League Strategy: Five Differentials for the Festive Period
The run-up to Christmas is famously chaotic in Fantasy Premier League (FPL). Matches come thick and fast, rotation by 20 clubs’ managers or head coaches becomes unpredictable, and mini-league and overall-rank swings can be dramatic. Many FPL managers flock toward the same template assets, but an advantage can be gained through well-selected differentials—players who have attractive fixtures, will play regularly over this period, and possess various routes to points but remain under-owned.
As we enter Gameweek 16 and the busiest stretch of the season, these five differentials could hold the key:
The Under-Owned Talisman
Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) is one of the most reliable attackers in the Premier League over the past two completed seasons, with a combined 29 goals and 17 assists. Despite this, he was owned by under six percent of FPL managers at time of writing. The West Ham United forward has delivered points in his past two games (one goal and one assist respectively), lining him up as the perfect festive-period differential.
The biggest positive for Bowen is his minutes.
He is virtually guaranteed to play 90 minutes in every match when fit and available, especially during December when most FPL managers suffer from having players being unexpectedly benched by their Premier League counterparts. Being able to rely on Bowen’s endurance is invaluable even if West Ham blow hot and cold as a team.
The Forgotten Forward
Raul Jimenez (£6.2m) has been another proven asset in this league, with low ownership (one percent at time of writing). After years of setbacks and inconsistency following the head injury in November 2020 that almost ended his career, Raul Jimenez finally looked near his best last season, finishing with 12 goals and three assists in the league. He has a goal and three assists since Gameweek 8, starting all seven of those fixtures while fellow striker Rodrigo Muniz (£5.4m) recovers from hamstring surgery.
Muniz is expected back in early January but his rehabilitation could take longer.
The Mexican is the clear first-choice striker at Fulham, the focal point of their attack and their designated penalty taker. His fixtures in December look pretty good too—the west Londoners play Burnley (A), Forest (H) and West Ham (A). Jimenez offers a way to differentiate your attack without sacrificing expected returns.
The Wildcard with Upside
Kevin Schade (£7.0m) has been one of Brentford’s most nailed-on attackers, starting every game since Gameweek 2. He is suspended this weekend having accumulated five yellow cards but looks a fine option from Gameweek 17 onwards. His minutes should be even more secure with Dango Ouattara (£6.0m) heading to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) with Burkina Faso after Sunday’s home game against Leeds United.
Kevin Schade has shown promise in his underlying numbers—he has three goals and two assists with an expected goal (xG) involvement of 4.3. The German scored 11 Premier League goals last season from limited minutes (2,281, or the equivalent of just over 25 90-minute matches), so with more game time to come, he should do well again.
The Defensive Gem
Piero Hincapie (£5.4m) presents one of the more intriguing differential defensive options. With Gabriel (£6.2m) out recovering from a thigh problem and no expected return date yet revealed, Hincapie should be nailed to start for Arsenal. Couple that with a potential William Saliba (£6.0m) injury, and the Ecuador centre-back might even become a longer-term option.
As the cheapest route into the league’s best defence, Hincapie has plenty of upside.
He has started the league leaders’ past four games and hit the defensive-contributions points threshold in the most recent two. He also has more attacking potential than most give him credit for—in four completed seasons at previous club Bayer Leverkusen, he scored seven times and registered five assists.
The Fixture-Friendly Creator
Harry Wilson (£5.3m) presents FPL managers with so many reasons to buy him—cheap, nailed-on to start, good fixtures, on set-piece duties, goals and assists. The 28-year-old Welshman showed with his goal in the 2-1 defeat against Crystal Palace on Sunday that he is in fine form.
He will be absolutely certain to be in the Fulham line-up for the upcoming matches if fit, especially with Nigeria internationals Alex Iwobi (£6.4m) and Samuel Chukwueze (£5.3m) set to depart for AFCON after the weekend trip to Burnley. Fulham’s fixtures (after Burnley, they host Forest and go to West Ham in their next two) give him plenty of opportunity to exploit three of the division’s leakiest defences, and his minutes have been strong enough to consider him a viable differential.
With two goals and two assists in his previous two games, Wilson has the momentum.
He has become one of Fulham’s most reliable options. Harry Wilson is also the type of low-risk player you can keep long term as your fifth midfielder, thanks to his low price.
By Abdul Rehman